n063  1626  24 Oct 82
BC-SOV-U.S.
U.S. Policy Makers Assuming Brezhnev May Be Replaced Soon
By BERNARD GWERTZMAN
c. 1982 N.Y. Times News Service
    WASHINGTON - The Reagan administration has begun preparing policies
toward the Soviet Union that are based on the assumption that there
will be an early change in the Kremlin leadership and that it is
important that the next Soviet leader have a clear idea of American
views, administration officials say.
    Several officials involved in dealing with the Soviet Union said in
interviews in recent days that there was a consensus among American
intelligence officials that Leonid I. Brezhnev, the Soviet leader for
the last 18 years, was in such poor health that he was likely to be
replaced soon. But there is no agreement on when this might occur, or
who would succeed him, officials said.
    Brezhnev, who will be 76 in December, is believed to have been in
poor health for years, particularly in the last four years, when his
public appearances have decreased drastically.
    ''Within the CIA and the State Department, different experts have
different candidates,'' one official said, ''but the old Soviet hands
don't rule anybody out, even somebody nobody has touted.''
    Secretary of State George P. Shultz has received briefings on the
Kremlin leadership situation but has come away from them convinced
that it makes no sense to pin American plans on any one Soviet figure
emerging as Brezhnev's successor.
    Reporters were told last week that before Shultz's recent two
meetings with Foreign Minister Andrei A. Gromyko in New York, it was
agreed by Shultz and President Reagan that those sessions not be used
to try to advance new Soviet-American agreements, but rather to send,
in effect, a transcript of American views on relations with the
Soviet Union to the new Soviet leadership, whatever it might be.
    As a result, during the seven and a half hours of talks, Shultz
deliberately spoke at great length on virtually every issue between
the two countries. The American expectation was that Gromyko's staff
would send a full transcript of the exchange to the Soviet Politburo,
from which the next Soviet leader is expected to emerge.
    As part of the belief that Moscow is on the verge of a change,
American officials also expect no dramatic shifts in Moscow's
policies. One official pointed out that during Shultz's meetings with
Gromyko, neither side raised the possibility of a meeting between
Reagan and Brezhnev.
    A State Department official said that Soviet diplomats had told
their American counterparts that Brezhnev only worked about two days
a week and that it was impossible for him to assume the burdens of
such a meeting. Since Washington assumes that Brezhnev will be
replaced, there was no particular desire, the official said, to have
a meeting.
    This was the overriding message conveyed to the Soviet Union,
reporters were told, in the Shultz-Gromyko meetings:
    ''We are strong. We are going to stay strong. We are going to
develop our strength. We have strong alliances, and we can take care
of our interests, and you better believe it. And if you want a
conflict-ridden situation in that context, you have a formidable
adversary. It doesn't have to be that way, but that's the way it is
right now, and if you want to change, let's see some evidence in
behavior.''
    Among the possible ''evidence'' that the Americans have suggested
would be the release from prison of dissidents, such as Anatoly B.
Shcharansky, or a rise in emigration, an easing of martial law in
Poland, an agreement on the withdrawal of Soviet troops from
Afghanistan, or a Soviet willingness to press for an agreement on the
withdrawal of Vietnamese troops from Cambodia.
    What is unique about the situation, officials said, is that this is
the first time in Soviet-American relations that a change in the
leadership is evident and American officials have time to think about
it.
    Stalin died without warning in 1953 and his eventual successor,
Nikita S. Khrushchev, was ousted by his colleagues in 1964, with
Brezhnev initially sharing the leadership with Aleksei N. Kosygin,
the government leader, and Nikolai V. Podgorny, the nominal chief of
state. Brezhnev took over Podgorny's duties, adding them to his
leadership of the Communist Party, in 1977, and Kosygin faded even
before his death.
    For a long time the experts expected Andrei A. Kirilenko, who is 76,
to replace Brezhnev. But lately, officials said, there have been
plausible rumors in Moscow that he is very ill or otherwise out of
the political race. His signature was missing from an obituary signed
by the rest of the Politburo on Oct. 5 and this started a flurry of
new rumors.
    Speculation has also centered on Yuri V. Andropov, former head of
the secret police, but he has not been seen publicly since the end of
August, officials said. The most prominent contender, at the moment,
officials seemed to agree, is Konstantin U. Chernenko, a longtime
Brezhnev protege. Another official favored by some experts is Viktor
V. Grishin, the head of the Moscow Communist Party committee since
1967, who has had long economic experience, particularly in the trade
union field.
    
nyt-10-24-82 1925edt
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